Ok, Bush, NOW You Can Be 'Cautiously' Optimistic.
Published on January 31, 2005 By Solnac In Politics
Before you all think I'm jumping the bandwagon of people lauding democracy an absolute success and the fact we show those insurgents who's boss, I will say, reservedly, that the Iraq elections were a booming and rather quiet success, despite all the hype (and no pun intended).

BUT, here's just a small sampling of some issues that needs must be raised:

--While some areas were crammed, others had their voting booths empty, espically in the regions with the old Sunni regime were present. The Sunnis are in minority right now, and many of them didn't see the point in voting. Now, I'm not saying they should be in majority...what I am saying is there will be two issues: how well the minorities are treated, and how those minorites are going to deal with being in minority. With the religious tensions in this region, I'm not sure this is over yet.
--There's been some question between the CNN story of 72% voter turnout which was considered 'rough', and a later BBC 60% turnout. The acutal turnout may have some signfanct bearing on how successfully democracy is spreading. Ditto the number of voters registered. If they're smart, they'll double check the rolls to be safe.
--Iraq is occupied. No, seriously, this is an issue. It'll be a greater win when they'll run elections without US forces there supervising...it's part of the solvency issue.
--Lastly, depending on who you ask, there are not so many or a lot of Iraqi security troops trained, and it's been said until a decent force is established, none of our troops are going anywhere. So, a completely free Iraq is still a little ways off.

So, what exactly does this mean? Well, one of three things right now: things will continue to go well and our war will end in Iraq, there will be a little bit of trouble dealing with security issues (but nothing major) and the status quo of how things will be maintained for a while, or lastly, there will be big trouble in Iraq dealing with the new government (like assassinations and the like) and there will be no light at the end of the tunnel. Right now, we're dancing in the dark, waiting for the song to end.

The adminstration may of gotten Iraq elections to work, and kudos to them, but they must continue to deal with the people issues.

Voting For Peace, the AWM/wolf dragon

Sol

Comments
on Jan 31, 2005
As for the fact that this was an election to construct a constitution-creating authority, peace is still a long way off in Iraq. I'm very skeptical about how or what was actually won there, but one thing is certain. People (except Sunnis) did defy the terrorist insurgents and go to the polls. That really puts a lot of emphasis on the will of Iraqis in general to end the madness over there. For that, I give them tons of credit.

Now, I'm waiting for further reports on the issue. Not just mainstream media and Dubya hype, but real news. Accurate reporting is something that we here in the US must continually be fighting (so to speak) for. Until some of those accurate reports start coming in, I will remain a skeptic. Next question, of course.......... and the continual burning question......... who do you believe? I dunno, but it sure isn't CNN, FOX, ABC, NBC, CBS, etc. I'm waiting for reports that will start circulating on the internet, and some foreign media, at such sites as

Truthout.org Link
FAIR Link
What Really Happened Link
And the compilation of articles displayed at Common Dreams Link

Obviously, the above sites have a liberal bias. But, without reading all viewpoints, you're only getting the very filtered reports from the mainstream. And, they are suspect, at best. I'm going to read all of it, however, and then maybe some modicum of truth will be out there.

The biggest winners in this whole mess must be the Iraqi people.

on Jan 31, 2005
I vote for the BBC counting, CNN is just too biased.
I agree that all mankind must face it that USA is occupying Iraq, so a form of establishing democracy in an occupied land is just a puppetplay.
I agree that Sunnis will take it that the 'legitimate government" is not theirs.
I also agree that USA must end the occupation or they'll be staying in the dark for far too long

on Jan 31, 2005
I was going to respond to each of these points, but then I noticed that they all had something in common, so I chose to comment on that.

What each of these points mean is that this is a big step, but it is only a step. There is much work to be done before the dancing in the streets can be a celebration of completion.

I think the one point many miss, is the main point that should be stressed about the elections yesterday. What they really mean is, from the time the results are announced, the people making the major decisions will be those who were chosen by the people of Iraq to do so. This war started with the complete occupation of Iraq, as time's gone by and objectives were met, the institutions of governmental infrastructure have been turned over to Iraqis to run. Sometimes that change has worked, but in others they have not... that is not a failure, that is to be expected.

The point of yesterday is that it happened! Not only did it happen, but there was far more participation and far fewer casualties than expected. That means that, in the weeks to come, the establishment of the government will be almost completely done at the hands of Iraqis. It will be Iraqis who discuss the terms of their new constitution, it will be Iraqis who write the final draft, and it will be Iraqis who ratify it.

True, there may be coalition troops in Iraq for years to come, but we have troops in many countries in the world, but that doesn't mean we are occupiers.
on Jan 31, 2005
as an arab who knows the region very well , I will tell that the majority shiia government will may face trouble ,other countries sunni giants like Saudia Arabia won't accept a shiia nation on its borders ,the Egyptian president himself once said "the existence of Iraqi shiia Government will be a diseaster " no because they don't like democracy more than they fear the Irani influence ,Shiia in the end they look to Iran like Sunni look to Saudi Arabia

in the past shiia ruled Iraq before Saddam yet no in the classification of you are shiia ,I am sunni ,but in other classification of baathi ,communist ,nasri..etc

what it fears me not the sunni and shiia ,but the turkmans and kurds the tension between them are increasing kurds are playing with a fire that can cause a real civil war .Kurds and turkmans are all sunni

The minorities situation in the Middle east is not the good one also the majority in some countries like Syria

Iraq will have some time before it will be stable and I am afraid this time will be full of blood and the shadows of the past
for the elections results I will wait for AL-jazeera despite being banned from working in Iraq yet some how they won't be biased
on Jan 31, 2005
The comments by zieinobia are very important. Iraq is a country of many factions that were forced into a country by the British. The government that will develop and the process that is used to form this new government is anything by sure. There are foreign forces and influence. There are those that lost power when Saddam was removed. There are the internal factions that exist. There is the impact of a non- moslem army in the country. Northern Ireland was Christian and look at the killing that took place.

Bush has started a process that no one can be sure of the end result!
on Jan 31, 2005

Ok, Bush, NOW You Can Be 'Cautiously' Optimistic.

That is incorrect. Bush could have been and has been optimistic on Iraq.  Just because his plan is starting to show fruit does not mean the plan or the optimism has changed.  Just the results are starting to be seen more clearly.

on Jan 31, 2005
mythgarr -

Spare us the advertising, please. Tacky. Very tacky.

Conveniently forgotten is that the Sunnis had favored status in Iraq under Saddam, even though a minority, and effectively oppressed the Shia majority. If they chose to stay away from the polls, they made a political mistake. I suspect that Sistani will still make sure that the Sunni minority is brought into the political process and that the Shia majority will treat the Sunnis more fairly than the Sunnis treated them when the shoe was on the other foot. It's a shame that they allowed the insurgents to intimidate them, but that's the way the cookie crumbles. Anyone who claims the process is illigitimate because the Sunnis aren't adequately represented needs to talk to the Sunnis.

Cheers,
Daiwa